India's Qualification Chances for WTC Final in the Wake of Boxing Day Test Defeat to Australia: A Comprehensive Analysis of all Possible Scenarios

Australia's path to the second consecutive WTC final has been made smoother after securing their 10th victory in the ongoing WTC cycle. Led by Pat Cummins, the team has increased their winning percentage to an impressive 61.45, up from 58.89.

South Africa have already qualified for the summit clash set to be played at Lord's Cricket Ground in June 2025. The Proteas sealed qualification after winning the first Test against Pakistan in Centurion.

India are now running the major risk of being knocked out of the WTC final race by the time the fifth and final Border-Gavaskar Trophy Test comes to an end in Sydney.

If Australia win or draw the final Test in Sydney, beginning January 3, it will knock India out of contention for the WTC final.

What does India need to do to qualify for WTC final?

India's fate is no longer in their hands after losing in Melbourne. Rohit Sharma and co now need to win in Sydney to keep their hopes alive of making it to Lord's.

If India win and level the Border-Gavaskar Trophy 2-2, they will need Sri Lanka to win 2-0 against Australia. If this happens, India's PCT will reach 55.26, while Australia's will stand at 54.26.

If Australia manages to draw one match against Sri Lanka, they would end up having better PCT than India.

If India lose or draw the Sydney Test against Australia, they would be out of the WTC final contention.

Updated WTC standings:

South Africa (Q) (PCT 66.67)

Australia (PCT 61.45)

India (PCT 52.77)

New Zealand (PCT 48.21)

Sri Lanka (45.45)

England (PCT 43.18)

Bangladesh (PCT 31.25)

Pakistan (30.30)

West Indies (24.24)

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