Analysis of a 12-Team, 9-Cat Mock Draft

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With fantasy football in full swing and the chill of winter approaching, it's time to shift our focus to fantasy basketball. Last season, Denver's Nikola Jokic reigned supreme as the top pick in category league drafts. However, this season brings a new challenger in the form of Spurs phenom Victor Wembanyama. Wembanyama has emerged as a frightening talent, with his rookie season only scratching the surface of his potential. Could he dethrone the Joker as the top fantasy basketball pick this year? Only time will tell.

Over the weekend, I had the honor of participating in a 12-team, 9-category mock draft hosted by fantasy basketball analysts Mitch Casey and Karan Talwar. I landed the second overall pick through good fortune, meaning I would get the "leftover" between Wembanyama and Jokic. In category leagues, the first seven picks are relatively "safe," regardless of order, before getting a bit hairy. Below is a round-by-round draft breakdown, followed by my final team. We'll have plenty of fantasy content on the site between now and the end of the "draft season" next month.

Round 1

1. PF/C Victor Wembanyama (SAS)

2. C Nikola Jokic (DEN)

3. PG/SG Shai Gilgeous-Alexander (OKC)

4. PG/SG Luka Doncic (DAL)

5. PF/C Anthony Davis (LAL)

6. PG Tyrese Haliburton (IND)

7. PF/C Giannis Antetokounmpo (MIL)

8. C Joel Embiid (PHI)

9. SF/PF Jayson Tatum (BOS)

10. PG Trae Young (ATL)

11. SG Anthony Edwards (MIN)

12. SG Donovan Mitchell (CLE)

Wembanyama was the first overall pick, which is unsurprising given how well he played as a rookie. He finished last season as a top 10 per-game player in 8- and 9-cat formats. Again, as stated in the intro, if last season represents Wembanyama's floor, the rest of the NBA (and fantasy managers who don't land him) are in trouble. I'm fine with the reliable Jokic, whose run of three consecutive first-overall seasons in per-game value ended last season. He finished third...brutal. As for totals, the Joker has been first overall for four straight seasons.

The fantasy-related concerns truly begin with Embiid at eighth overall. The 76ers center was limited to 39 games last season due to a knee injury suffered in late January, and he didn't look his best during the Paris Olympics, either. Embiid did play 68 and 66 games in the two seasons prior, but those are also the only two years in which he's met (or exceeded) the 65-game threshold in his NBA career. If Embiid can get 60 games, fair value will be recouped as long as he's available for the fantasy playoffs. Young could be in for a boost with Dejounte Murray's departure, but the turnovers could be an issue in 9-cat formats.

Round 2

13. SF/PF Kevin Durant (PHO)

14. PG Stephen Curry (GSW)

15. PG James Harden (LAC)

16. PG LaMelo Ball (CHA)

17. SG Devin Booker (PHO)

18. C Domantas Sabonis (SAC)

19. PG Damian Lillard (MIL)

20. SF Scottie Barnes (TOR)

21. PF/C Chet Holmgren (OKC)

22. PG/SG Kyrie Irving (DAL)

23. SG/SF Paul George (PHI)

24. PG Jalen Brunson (NYK)

Ball going 16th overall is the eye-opener here due to his poor availability. After playing 75 games during the 2021-22 season, the Hornets' point guard has played 58 in the last two due to ankle injuries. He only played 22 games last season before being shut down for good on January 26. Ball's availability could boost him and players like Miles Bridges and Brandon Miller.

There weren't any head-scratchers in this round, and I went with Paul George after his move to Philadelphia. PG was outstanding during his final season with the Clippers, and he has not finished outside the top 25 in per-game value since 2014-15 (when a broken leg suffered the previous summer limited him to six games). The one concern would be availability, as last season was the first of at least 65 games for George since 2018-19 with the Thunder.

Round 3

25. PG De'Aaron Fox (SAC)

26. SF/PF LeBron James (LAL)

27. SF/PF Kawhi Leonard (LAC

28. PG Fred VanVleet (TOR)

29. PG/SG Dejounte Murray (NOR)

30. PG Tyrese Maxey (PHI)

31. C Alperen Sengun (HOU)

32. PF Lauri Markkanen (UTA)

33. PG/SG Cade Cunningham (DET)

34. C Bam Adebayo (MIA)

35. PG Ja Morant (MEM)

36. PF/C Karl-Anthony Towns (MIN)

One of the questions for me heading into the draft was where Ja Morant would land. Last season, his ADP (75) suffered because of the 25-game suspension he was required to serve. How will that absence and Morant being limited to nine games due to a labral tear in his shoulder impact drafters this fall? Of course, there is no need to be concerned about a suspension, and Morant is healthy as training camp approaches. However, the style of play may make him more susceptible to experiencing an extended absence due to injury. Also, Morant has just one top 50 9-cat season (2021-22) to his credit. That said, grabbing him at the end of the third round is well within reason.

With my third-round pick, I selected LeBron James. He was a top 20 player last season and appeared in 71 games, the most for the future Hall of Fame wing since 2017-18 (82 with Cleveland). James has played 60 or more games twice since then: last season and 2019-20 (67). Availability is the one concern, but given how well James takes care of his body, he's worth the risk in this spot.

Round 4

37. PF/C Evan Mobley (CLE)

38. SF/PF Paolo Banchero (ORL)

39. PF/C Jaren Jackson Jr. (MEM)

40. SG/SF Jalen Williams (OKC)

41. PG/SG Immanuel Quickley (TOR)

42. SF/PF Jalen Johnson (ATL)

43. SG/SF Desmond Bane (MEM)

44. PF/C Zion Williamson (NOR)

45. PG/SG Derrick White (BOS)

46. C Myles Turner (IND)

47. PG Jamal Murray (DEN)

48. SF/PF Jimmy Butler (MIA)

Banchero, Williamson, and Butler were the picks that caught my eye in the fourth round. Banchero was excellent for Orlando last season, but turnovers have limited his value in 9-cat formats. Paolo makes a lot of sense for managers utilizing a turnover-punt build, significantly if he can improve the percentages (45.5% FG, 72.5% FT last season) and defensive stats (0.9 steals, 0.6 blocks). Williamson and Butler come with availability concerns, but they may both be worth the risk this time around. The former looked noticeably slimmer in offseason photos, while the latter is heading into the final season of his current contract.

Also, will Williamson be asked to spend more time at center after New Orleans lost Jonas Valanciunas in free agency? According to Cleaning the Glass, he played a career-high 14% of his minutes at center last season and finished in the 96th percentile in defensive points per possession. The Pelicans having Daniel Theis, first-round pick Yves Missi, and Karlo Matkovic on the roster could open the door for more Zion at the five, especially if Willie Green wants to get Trey Murphy more minutes on the wing. As for my fourth-round pick, Murray was the choice. He didn't look his best during the Paris Olympics, so it makes one wonder how healthy he'll be once the season begins. However, with Turner being selected one spot prior, Murray felt safer than Butler.

Round 5

49. PG Darius Garland (CLE)

50. SF/PF Pascal Siakam (IND)

51. SG/SF DeMar DeRozan (SAC)

52. SG/SF Jaylen Brown (BOS)

53. C Rudy Gobert (MIN)

54. C Nikola Vucevic (CHI)

55. PG/SG Josh Giddey (CHI)

56. SF/PF Tobias Harris (DET)

57. C Jalen Duren (DET)

58. SF Franz Wagner (ORL)

59. PF Julius Randle (NYK)

60. C Nicolas Claxton (BKN)

An afterthought in Oklahoma City by season's end, Giddey has been a preferred choice of many in early mock drafts. Even with the Bulls having Coby White and Ayo Dosunmu on the roster, Giddey brings a level of distribution to the roster that the team currently lacks (unless Lonzo Ball is healthy and can work his way back into the mix). Round 5 felt a bit early for Giddey, but why not roll the dice at that point in a 14-round draft?

DeRozan was selected with the 51st overall pick and feels like a relatively safe play to threaten top-50 value, even with the move to Sacramento. The one question: tempo. Sacramento ranked 14th in the NBA in pace last season, while Chicago was 28th. DeRozan has not been on a team that finished in the top half of the league in pace since 2020-21 when the Spurs ranked 15th. Does Sacramento throttle things down a bit to work DeRozan into the fold? Or will he have to speed up his play? I went with Siakam, who I expect will benefit from having an entire training camp to mesh with Tyrese Haliburton and the other Pacers.

Round 6

61. SF Mikal Bridges (NYK)

62. C Deandre Ayton (POR)

63. C Jarrett Allen (CLE)

64. SG Cam Thomas (BKN)

65. SG Bradley Beal (PHO)

66. SG/SF Devin Vassell (SAS)

67. SG Jordan Poole (WAS)

68. SG Zach LaVine (CHI)

69. C Mark Williams (CHA)

70. PF Miles Bridges (CHA)

71. SF Brandon Miller (CHA)

72. C Isaiah Hartenstein (OKC)

Thomas being selected before Beal in a fantasy draft? Yep. The Nets guard doesn't offer much outside points and 3-pointers, but Brooklyn is in a situation where Thomas should have the green light every time he touches the basketball. As for Beal, things can't go much worse than they did during his first season in Phoenix. First and foremost, he needs to stay healthy. However, the additions of Tyus Jones and Monte Morris should aid Beal, as the Suns will have two competent point guards to call on in the first season of the Mike Budenholzer era.

In an interesting twist, three Hornets were selected in consecutive picks during this round. I lucked out and was able to grab Miller at 71st overall. He had a promising rookie season, which was overshadowed by the play of Wembanyama and Chet Holmgren (and the latter was on the top-seeded team in the West). If LaMelo Ball can remain healthy, Miller should benefit, as the Hornets ranked 19th in the NBA in pace last season. They were a top-10 team each of the two seasons prior, and faster play tends to benefit a team's finishers.

Round 7

73. C Jusuf Nurkic (PHO)

74. PG/SG Jrue Holiday (BOS)

75. C Brook Lopez (MIL)

76. C Walker Kessler (UTA)

77. SF/PF Kyle Kuzma (WAS)

78. SG Austin Reaves (LAL)

79. PG D'Angelo Russell (LAL)

80. SF Trey Murphy (NOR)

81. PG Anfernee Simons (POR)

82. SG Tyler Herro (MIA)

83. SF/PF Brandon Ingram (NOR)

84. PF/C Jabari Smith Jr. (HOU)

Walker Kessler was a player many, myself included, were willing to use a top 50 pick on last season. That did not work. Were the offseason trade rumors simply a ploy to light a fire under him after a disappointing 2023-24? Or was there actual truth to them? Regardless of the answer, Kessler remained with the Jazz and can be impactful as a finisher and shot-blocker. However, he needs to be better as a rebounder if the impact of his poor foul shooting is to be minimized in fantasy basketball. Also, Kessler's field-goal percentage decreased from 72.0% as a rookie to 65.4% last season. That isn't terrible, but he doesn't have much margin for error, especially in only 23 minutes per game.

The two Pelicans wings going in Round 7 also offered intrigue. I'd be higher on Murphy in fantasy had New Orleans traded Ingram, who was selected three picks later. Maybe something happens before the season begins, but I fear Trey's fantasy ceiling will be capped if Ingram figures prominently in the Pelicans' rotation. I used my seventh-round pick on Holiday, a relatively safe selection given his career numbers. No Kristaps Porzingis to begin the season could boost Jrue's defensive production, even though they don't play the same position.

Round 8

85. PG/SG CJ McCollum (NOR)

86. SF/PF Jonathan Kuminga (GSW)

87. C Jonas Valanciunas (WAS)

88. SF/PF OG Anunoby (NYK)

89. SF/PF Keegan Murray (SAC)

90. SG Alex Caruso (OKC)

91. SG/SF Bogdan Bogdanovic (ATL)

92. C Jakob Poeltl (TOR)

93. SG/SF RJ Barrett (TOR)

94. PG Coby White (CHI)

95. PG/SG Terry Rozier (MIA)

96. SF/PF Khris Middleton (MIL)

Anunoby going in Round 8 feels like a steal until you consider his availability. He appeared in 50 games last season and has surpassed that number once since the 2020-21 campaign. Add in "Iron Man" Mikal Bridges, and there's another wing on the Knicks roster who stands to play significant minutes. Anunoby can be a fantasy stud, but he must stay on the floor. Coby White was one of the most improved players in the NBA last season, finishing second in the voting behind Tyrese Maxey, but the addition of Giddey does not help matters regarding his fantasy prospects.

Barrett is another player I'll have my eye on in future drafts. While the move to Toronto proved positive for him when on the court, RJ's game has not exactly been "fantasy-friendly." But maybe that changes with the Raptors. I grabbed Rozier with my pick, betting on "Scary Terry" being more impactful than he was after joining the Heat at the trade deadline.

Round 9

97. PG Keyonte George (UTA)

98. C Ivica Zubac (LAC)

99. SF/PF Michael Porter Jr. (DEN)

100. PG Chris Paul (SAS)

101. PG Scoot Henderson (POR)

102. C Onyeka Okongwu (ATL)

103. C Dereck Lively II (DAL)

104. C Daniel Gafford (DAL)

105. PG/SG Jalen Suggs (ORL)

106. PF/C John Collins (UTA)

107. SG Brandin Podziemski (GSW)

108. SF/PF Deni Avdija (POR)

Where the Mavericks centers are selected is another question heading into draft season. While Gafford was a fantasy standout last season, providing 5th-round per-game value in 9-cat formats after being traded to Dallas, Lively played more minutes per game during the team's run to the NBA Finals. Both can provide reliable value in a platoon system. But does Lively's perceived upside give him the upper hand heading into his second NBA season? He went one pick before Gafford in this draft, while Atlanta's Okongwu was selected 102nd overall. He's been in a similar situation with Clint Capela, but the young pivot's progress was limited last season due to injury.

I'm high on Zubac heading into this season, which is why he was selected with the second pick of this round. With George no longer in the fold, there should be even more pick-and-rolls run involving Zubac and James Harden, and they established solid on-court chemistry last season. CP3 could be in line for a fantasy resurgence in San Antonio, while Henderson can't be less efficient than he was as a rookie. Right? Podziemski has the potential to be a steal in this round, especially if he gets the minutes/opportunities required to get up

8-12 3-point attempts per game

Round 10

109. SG/SF Amen Thompson (HOU)

110. PF/C Draymond Green (GSW)

111. SG Jalen Green (HOU)

112. PG Tyus Jones (PHO)

113. PF/C Kristaps Porzingis (BOS)

114. PG/SG Marcus Smart (MEM)

115. C Al Horford (BOS)

116. SG/SF Dyson Daniels (ATL)

117. SG/SF Herb Jones (NOR)

118. C Mitchell Robinson (NYK)

119. PF/C Naz Reid (MIN)

120. PF Alex Sarr (WAS)

Where should fantasy managers target Porzingis? Well, with a 5-6 month recovery timeline after undergoing leg surgery in late June, he isn't going to help you early on. Add in a likely ramp-up period, and the hope is that Porzingis will be healthy (and playing without any restrictions) come fantasy playoff time. Just outside the top 100 feels like a good spot for him, but the key for any manager will be to ensure they've solidified their frontcourt in prior rounds.

Daniels offers some intrigue in Atlanta, even though I prefer Bogdan Bogdanovic (selected 91st overall in this mock), while Thompson could be a steal in Houston. He may not offer 3-point production, but there's upside due to the rebounding and defensive stats. I went with Reid, the reigning Sixth Man of the Year, while Sarr was the first rookie off the board at 120th overall. That's a good indicator of what most fantasy managers think of the incoming rookie class.

Round 11

121. SF/PF Jeremy Sochan (SAS)

122. PG/SG Collin Sexton (UTA)

123. PG Mike Conley (MIN)

124. C Clint Capela (ATL)

125. SG/SF Shaedon Sharpe (POR)

126. SG/SF Ausar Thompson (DET)

127. PF/C Trayce Jackson-Davis (GSW)

128. SG De'Anthony Melton (GSW)

129. SF Cameron Johnson (BKN)

130. SG Klay Thompson (DAL)

131. SF Jaime Jaquez Jr. (MIA)

132. PG Reed Sheppard (HOU)

I went with Sexton in this round, but I wish I'd played it safe and selected Conley instead. The veteran point guard may not be a player most managers target with a top-100 pick, but he's been top 75 or better in 11 of the last 14 seasons. The exceptions were 2017-18 (12 games played due to injury), 2019-20 (47 games), and 2022-23 (67 games split between Utah and Minnesota). Conley has been a critical mentor for Anthony Edwards and should take on that role for first-round pick Robert Dillingham, who may be his heir apparent. The steals, assists, and percentages mean Conley will remain a credible top-75 option, even if he isn't selected that early in most drafts.

Where's Klay going now that he's moved from the Bay Area to Dallas? He was 130th overall in this draft, well below his early Yahoo ADP (106.4 per Hashtag Basketball). Playing off of two elite playmakers in Luka and Kyrie can boost Thompson's value as a 3-point option, and he'll be a lock to start with the Mavericks. That was unlikely to be the case had he remained with the Warriors. Regarding Golden State, Jackson-Davis should offer solid value if considered the team's starting center. Melton was selected with the next pick. While he could not stay healthy in Philadelphia last season, we've seen him offer excellent fantasy value when consistently available.

Round 12

133. SF/PF Taylor Hendricks (UTA)

134. SG/SF Ron Holland (DET)

135. SG Grayson Allen (PHO)

136. SG Malik Monk (SAC)

137. SG/SF Donte DiVincenzo (NYK)

138. C Zach Edey (MEM)

139. SG/SF Ben Simmons (BKN)

140. PF Aaron Gordon (DEN)

141. SF/PF Jerami Grant (POR)

142. PG Dennis Schroder (BKN)

143. PF/C Bobby Portis (MIL)

144. PG/SG Malcolm Brogdon (WAS)

Two more rookies were selected in Round 12, with Holland going 134th overall and Edey four picks later. The latter may have been undervalued, especially if he earns the right to start next to Jaren Jackson Jr. While some questioned Edey's fit at the NBA level (and the jury is still out), his two-year run at Purdue cannot be ignored. As for Holland, the Pistons have a lot of young wings on their roster, so we'll see how that competition plays out in camp. The key for him is to become a more consistent perimeter shooter, as there is much to like about his athleticism and defensive skill set.

Simmons being selected in the 12th round was undoubtedly an attention-grabber due to his poor availability. We've seen Ben be a highly impactful player on both ends of the floor, but he's played 57 games in the last three years. The last time Simmons appeared in at least 60 was 2018-19 when he played 79 for the 76ers. I took a safe approach in this round and selected Portis, who has finished third in the Sixth Man of the Year voting each of the last two seasons. He only needs 25 minutes to provide solid value, which can change due to Khris Middleton's injury history.

Round 13

145. SG Gradey Dick (TOR)

146. SF/PF Tari Eason (HOU)

147. SG Christian Braun (DEN)

148. PG Andrew Nembhard (IND)

149. PF Nikola Jovic (MIA)

150. PF/C Kelly Olynyk (TOR)

151. PG/SG Jaden Ivey (DET)

152. SG Gary Trent Jr. (MIL)

153. PF PJ Washington (DAL)

154. SG/SF Josh Hart (NYK)

155. SG Kevin Porter Jr. (LAC)

156. SG Bennedict Mathurin (IND)

While Eason was limited to 22 games last season, I was thrilled to see him on the board at 146th overall. Tari finished last season as a top-100 player, and I think he can provide similar value this season as long as he stays healthy. To a certain extent, Mathurin may be a forgotten man, as he was sidelined for the duration of Indiana's run to the conference finals. Does he start over Aaron Nesmith? Or will Mathurin come off the bench and serve as one of the primary scorers for Indiana's second unit? He doesn't offer much defensive production, meaning the latter role may be better regarding Mathurin's fantasy value in 2024-25.

Round 14

157. SG Buddy Hield (GSW)

158. PF/C Karlo Matkovic (NOR)

159. C Wendell Carter Jr. (ORL)

160. SG Kentavious Caldwell-Pope (ORL)

161. PG Russell Westbrook (DEN)

162. SF Andrew Wiggins (GSW)

163. SG Jordan Clarkson (UTA)

164. SF Bilal Coulibaly (WAS)

165. SG Norman Powell (LAC)

166. PF Jonathan Isaac (ORL)

167. C Kel'El Ware (MIA)

168. SF Zaccharie Risacher (ATL)

Missing out on Isaac in the final round hurt; the health is a significant "wild card," but the 58 games played are the most for Isaac since the 2018-19 season (75). The ACL tear suffered in the bubble in August 2020 led to him missing two seasons, but it's worth noting that a hyperextension of the same (left) knee in January of that year sidelined him until play resumed amid the COVID-19 outbreak. Being another year removed from those injuries should help Isaac; fantasy managers aren't expecting a top-20 season, but he can be one of the steals of fantasy basketball this season.

The draft concluded with two rookies: I selected Ware, who could fit nicely next to Bam Adebayo if the Heat decide to play two bigs on occasion, while Risacher was the final pick. How much leeway Risacher is given in Atlanta may depend on what the decision-makers think of De'Andre Hunter, who was not selected in this draft. While Hunter's had his moments, availability has been an issue throughout his career. He did average a career-high 15.6 points per game, but the fantasy value has not been there.

My Final Team

1 (2). C Nikola Jokic (DEN)

2 (23). SG/SF Paul George (PHI)

3 (26). SF/PF LeBron James (LAL)

4 (47). PG Jamal Murray (DEN)

5 (50). SF/PF Pascal Siakam (IND)

6 (71). SF/PF Brandon Miller (CHA)

7 (74). PG/SG Jrue Holiday (BOS)

8 (95). PG/SG Terry Rozier (MIA)

9 (98). C Ivica Zubac (LAC)

10 (119). PF/C Naz Reid (MIN)

11 (122). PG/SG Collin Sexton (UTA)