An analysis of Lauri Markkanen's contract extension decisions

After a summer filled with trade rumors, Jazz All-Star forward Lauri Markkanen is now eligible to sign a significant contract extension with Utah starting on Tuesday. While there are many details to consider in terms of Markkanen's potential earnings on a new deal, the timing of when he actually signs the contract is the most crucial factor. This decision will not only impact Markkanen's future with the team, but also play a key role in shaping the overall makeup of the Utah Jazz.

Utah has every incentive to lavish Markkanen with a long-term offer this week, or the Jazz would risk permitting the 27-year-old to play out the final year of his current deal and test the open market next summer as a free agent. Securing Markkanen for several seasons could also increase his future trade value in one respect, as any team that would acquire Markkanen before he becomes extension-eligible this week likely would seek assurances of his interest in re-singing with that new organization.

But if Markkanen waits to sign his new deal until Wednesday or later, Markkanen won’t be eligible to be traded during this upcoming 2024-25 season. He wouldn’t be eligible to be traded for six months after his new agreement, in accordance with the collective bargaining, which would fall one day after the Feb. 6 trade deadline. It was similarly crucial for Cavaliers center Jarrett Allen to sign his extension Aug. 2, leaving him available for a trade for four days prior to the deadline.

All indications, though, are that Markkanen intends to delay his signature for that exact purpose, league sources told Yahoo Sports. Markkanen was traded twice in the span of 12 months, first with Chicago lording over his 2021 restricted free agency. The Bulls eventually relinquished Markkanen via a sign-and-trade that shipped the Finnish phenom to the Cavaliers on the three-year deal that is currently set to expire at season’s end. Yet following one strong season with Cleveland, the Cavaliers rerouted Markkanen to Utah as part of their massive outgoing package for Donovan Mitchell in September 2022.

Few players want to face the general uncertainty of moving midseason, especially those who have enjoyed newfound stability for the first time in their careers. That has been the same word about Portland forward Jerami Grant, sources said, despite rival teams' interest in the veteran Trail Blazer. Markkanen already expressed his family’s interest in staying with Utah during his exit interview this spring.

“We love to be here,” Markkanen said. “I’ve said it multiple times and my family likes to be here.”

Markkanen, then, can essentially remove himself from the trade landscape until next summer. That would ripple across the league-wide market, as various teams such as Golden State and Sacramento have made legitimate efforts to acquire Markkanen dating back to the start of free agency, sources said. San Antonio has harbored interest in Markkaken since he was a restricted free agent, according to league sources, and the Spurs once hoped to bring him back to San Antonio in the sign-and-trade that sent DeMar DeRozan to Chicago the same summer of Markkanen’s 2021 restricted free agency. Oklahoma City expressed preliminary interest back then as well, sources said, but the Thunder have since drafted Chet Holmgren and executed a rev-the-engine frontcourt move by signing center Isaiah Hartenstein this free agency period.

The Kings made significant progress in talks with the Jazz this summer, sources said, which ultimately fell apart by early July. Utah has made clear it prioritizes sophomore guard Brandin Podziemski over Jonathan Kuminga from Golden State, sources said, although the Warriors have envisioned both players in starting roles for next year.

And yet, for a Jazz team that already holds a surplus of nine incoming first-round selections and swaps through 2029, thanks to Utah’s mammoth hauls for both Mitchell and Rudy Gobert, it has had to ask itself if a package of multiple firsts and a rookie coming off a promising first season outweighs the value of rostering a bona fide All-Star who wants to be in Salt Lake City and has yet to enter his prime. Outside of Sacramento, much of the trade conversation out of Utah surrounding Markkanen this summer has felt preliminary at best.

Markkanen may be the closest idea to a franchise face the Jazz could acquire for the foreseeable future. He has shouldered the challenge of leading Finland’s national team and has embraced the same identity in Utah under head coach Will Hardy. The NBA transaction market is also quite unpredictable. One year ago, Mikal Bridges was considered off limits for trade in Brooklyn. When the right time occurs, Utah can elbow into any trade conversation if the price is right and attempt to surround Markkanen with veteran talent when it becomes available. The Jazz indeed scoured the market for ways to add to Markkanen this summer, sources said, including attempts to land Bridges plus other players, before hoping to present an offer to Paul George. Utah still has veterans such as John Collins, Jordan Clarkson and Collin Sexton making significant salaries that could serve as outgoing money in any trade package.

If there’s further indication of Utah’s plan to build around Markkanen at the moment, take the Jazz sending a cohort of coaches, including assistant Sean Sheldon and player development staffer Chris Jones, to his native Finland, along with Jazz sophomore guard Keyonte George. Utah’s official social media account posted something just short of a complete album of their shared workout. NBA teams have had support staff visit international players for years, but it’s a noteworthy step the week before Markkanen can put pen to paper.

That paper, by all accounts, will be a renegotiation and extension of Markkanen’s current deal, which would allow Utah to increase his 2024-25 salary as high as the $42,176,400 that represents 30% of the salary cap. A simple extension would limit Markkanen to gaining only 140% of his $18.04 million number for this season. It’s a similar mechanism to what Sacramento did for All-Star center Domantas Sabonis a year ago, and Utah has saved upward of $35 million in space and thus helped stall the free agent market at large. To further position themselves to reward Markkanen, the Jazz also haven’t officially signed third-year guard Johnny Juzang or backup center Drew Eubanks. And they’ll still need to renounce Talen Horton-Tucker and Kira Lewis, who hold $20.9 million and $17.2 million cap holds, respectively.

The Jazz could get tricky and then drop Markkanen’s second-year 2025-26 salary by as much as 40%, like Orlando did this summer with Jonathan Isaac, but Markkanen is likely in line for a much bigger payday that shows annual increases commensurate with the game’s best.

Markkanen’s four-year maximum under these parameters would put him at roughly $188.95 million, according to cap projections provided to Yahoo Sports, which would be right in the ballpark of Pascal Siakam’s huge deal he signed with Indiana this summer. A five-year maximum for Markkanen would approach $250 million.

From there, cap strategists suggest Utah could still be active in free agency. Depending on Markkanen’s final number, the Jazz project to have roughly $10 million in cap space, plus they’ll have access to the $7.983 million room mid-level exception. From there, Markkanen’s and Utah’s futures, either together or separate, have a season of twists and turns to endure, as the Jazz owe a top-10 protected 2025 first to OKC in what’s considered a loaded draft, and an even more loaded Western Conference presents an uphill battle for Utah to compete.